What will be the composition of the ninth parliament?

Many political experts emphasize that they believe that the future parliament will be the parliament of fundamentalists and will act much more transparently than in the past in terms of adherence to the province and the system.
This analysis, of course, has a lot of evidence to support it, to the extent that the reformists have implicitly acknowledged it, including Mohammad Raofi, a member of the central council of the disbanded party yesterday, by emphasizing that the national trust of the upcoming parliamentary elections will be the stage for the competition of fundamentalist spectrums. has concluded that this competition will be favorable for the future of the country.

 Experts are of the opinion that the performance of the reformists during the Fitna 88 is not something that can be erased from the minds of the public in a short period of time, and for this reason, the activists of this movement are trying a lot these days to find a way to return to the arena of the previous parliamentary competitions. They should open their eyes, but they should not forget that the sedition of 1988 has reduced their social capital to almost zero, and the situation will not change until they show a serious and practical demarcation with those events.
Parviz Sarvari, representative of Tehran, says in this regard: Considering the performance of the reformists in the 1988 elections, we will probably not see a serious reception of this trend by the people. Of course, this is based on the fact that, in the remaining time, the fundamentalist current can insist on the discourse of serving the people and continue the past process with greater speed, precision and volume.
The second part of the statements of this member of parliament also tells about another reality that some members of the society have directly touched. And this is an important issue that the successful performance of fundamentalists during the tenure of power and comparison with the reform period is a matter that naturally determines the direction of the people in the next elections.
The enthusiastic presence of the people at the ballot boxes is also a serious priority of the system in the first place, but according to many political activists, based on this analysis, it will be another factor in guaranteeing the victory of the fundamentalists.
Mohammad Javad Abtahi, Khomeini’s representative in Shahr, is one of the people who points to this issue. He believes that contrary to the claims of reformists and their supporters, experience has shown that in an open electoral space, the majority of the people will vote in favor of fundamentalism.
This member of parliament further stated that the success of fundamentalists in the upcoming elections was influenced by the presentation of a single list by this movement.
The striking and remarkable process of fundamentalist unity in the form of the 7+8 model and the efforts of all groups in this movement to adhere to and work under this process have left no doubt that the fundamentalists have used all their capacities to enter the election arena and This is another factor that increases the probability of their success Was. The difference between the views of the above two fronts is that, despite the high optimism of the fundamentalists about the election results, the reform front is now in such despair and despair that it is in a “political coma” due to its improper performance in the last elections . what The difference between the reformists and the fundamentalists is obvious now, that the first group describes any electoral activity early while the second group feels worried about the inactivity of the parties. To the extent that the warning of the former Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance regarding the electoral activities of the 11th presidency was greatly welcomed by the media sector of the reformists and they tried to generalize it to any electoral activities. It should be mentioned that Mr. Safar Harandi said in the gathering of the political leaders of the Imam Sajjad (AS) Corps of Hormozgan province, “Those who have already worn shawls and hats for the presidential elections in 3 years should know that the result of early elections in the country is the start of war. It is internal.” [1]

In order to get out of this situation, the leaders of reforms started dreaming and speculating, among them, we can mention the comment of Mr. Khatami, who said that he thought that all the prisoners of Fitna 88 would be released on the day of Ghadir Eid.

Among the other speculations of this group, which is more like an illusion, crystallized in the words of those around Mr. Khatami, is that Khatami is called; If he shows some self-restraint and does not submit to the system, the system will beg for him and his group to participate in the election contests.

These statements of the advisors of the head of the reformist government come from the fact that they have no hope of the people’s luck and consider the possibility of turning away from the candidates who enter the contests under the name of reformism seriously, but they want to withdraw at the cost of the system, that is, removal from the top. take place Meanwhile, different spectrums of fundamentalists have stated that reformists can enter the political scene and the option of eliminating reformists is not on the agenda.[2]

Therefore, the reformists find themselves caught in the purgatory of coming and not coming, therefore, on the one hand, they don’t want to reveal their activities and, in their own words, provide the reasons for the unity of the opposite front, and on the other hand, because they see their own death in silence and isolation, they are worried. So that the electoral arrangement of the 9th Parliament is not closed without their presence. Especially since the speculations appear from time to time on the pages of monitors and publications that, for example, Mashai can take the votes of the reforms. Or when Bahoner is asked about the possibility of his competition with Mashai.

This situation has caused a duality in the media sector related to this movement. In this regard, Shargh newspaper under the title “The game of the fundamentalists did not tempt the reformists” on the one hand with the analysis that the fundamentalists need a current against themselves to maintain unity and win the competitions, so what they do under the title of early election activity is to incite reforms. , is writing:

“All the reaction of the reformists to these news and events is nothing but silence, and neither the white smoke, nor the gray smoke, nor even the mixed smoke from the fundamentalist camp could turn the serious eyes of the reformists to themselves or to the small and large news about the presence, absence or Their presence should show a reaction.”[3]

And on the other hand, in the continuation of the same article, he pointed to the reaction of the head of the minority faction of the parliament and wrote:

“At the same time as the debate of the 9th Parliament began, Mohammad Reza Tabesh emphasized in a conversation with ISNA that everyone should be assured that a fair, free and competitive atmosphere will govern the elections and that the reformists should not feel that they are used as a bridge for Crossings are used.”[4]

From this minority of the parliament, the spokesman of the Khat Imam faction made this duality public with another belief and said: “Some people in this process propose a kind of political violence and believe that the reformists should remain silent and not raise any criticism, but others believe that silence is not permissible in this situation.” [5]

Due to these sensitivities in the so-called reforms, Mr. Khatami recently said in one of the meetings of the reformists to restore the spirit of hope: “We have to wait for a big event. Let’s manage the scene so that we don’t fall behind the society. I believe that this great event is by the hands of Hashemi Rafsanjani. [6]

The incident that Khatami mentions as a miracle to save the reformists is probably the formation of a new front consisting of moderate reformists and critical fundamentalists, which, from their point of view, can give new life to the hopeless reformists. The new entry of some brokers into the advertising scene and the claim that the reforms are alive can be evaluated in this regard.

One of the motivations of the agents’ seriousness to return to the political arena is the double importance of the Ninth Parliament elections. What doubles the importance of these elections is that one of them is held simultaneously in the elections of the Majlis and the Islamic councils of the city and the village, and the other is its impact on the 11th presidential election, which is caused by the alignment of the majority of the Majlis with the next government. Although this analysis seems to be true to a large extent that the composition of the parliament affects the tendency of the future government, but the experience of people’s tendencies shows that the representatives aligned with the government, system and leadership have more luck to enter the parliament.

Another point that adds to the importance of the upcoming elections is that the 1990 election is the first weighing arena of the country’s political currents after a major change called Fitna 88, in which one current refused to accept the election result by disrupting the country’s situation. Therefore, the movement is facing big obstacles to return to power. Regardless of the issue of disqualification of all those who in some way accompanied the seditionists, the main debate comes back to the answer to the question from the people, what is the guarantee for the acceptance of the election results by the reformists who want to compete again. What has changed in the election organizers in terms of implementation and monitoring? Don’t worry, another program is on the agenda to disrupt the results of the elections.

The prospect of removing a political trend from the competition scene is an issue that prompts agents like this to help strengthen their field by using their capacity. And this is the miracle that Khatami is eyeing and says that Hashemi has given us hope for the future. At the same time, he emphasizes that Hashemi is not pleasant for the reformists.

Based on this, it is possible to predict the possible scenarios of future elections in the following three situations:

۱- Quadrupole situation

The four-pole situation includes two spectrums of fundamentalists and two spectrums of reformists, which should actually be considered three-polarity of reformists and two spectrums of fundamentalists.

This option is more powerful considering the small possibility of the coalition of all fundamentalists on the one hand and the lack of coherence of all reformers, and its merits will be intense competition and increased participation, but it has an unpredictable result.

In this case, just as the fundamentalists issue lists in two spectrums, the reformists also issue two lists, one sub-list of which will include unknown and apparently independent figures. Although any candidate who enters the parliament from this list will be in the basket of reforms or moderates, but nothing will be removed from the main list of reformists. The main goal of this range of reformers can be described as maintaining the existence of reformers and attracting the votes of opponents of the coalition with Hashemi and making subsequent demands.

۲- The three-pole situation

One of the strong possibilities in the upcoming elections is a three-pole situation, the first pole of which will be “reformers centered on Hashemi”, the second “critical fundamentalists led by Larijani, Rezaei and Qalibaf” and the third pole will be “other fundamentalists”. This situation is mainly followed by groups affiliated with the reformists who think that the only way to return to power is to stand behind Mr. Hashemi, as it was mentioned that Mr. Khatami is attached to it. Of course, this movement will be pursued in a new format and most likely under the titles of moderation.

One of the reformists considered being under Hashemi’s umbrella as the only way to prevent the removal of this trend and says: “Aita… Hashemi can take the center of this flow and the two factions can provide solutions under the supervision of the Chairman of the Expediency Council to get out of the current situation in the country. In addition, the activity under his umbrella neutralizes the possibility of any conspiracy to remove the reformists from the political arena.[7]

But what goals Mr. Hashemi Rafsanjani pursues, the reformists say: “Hashmi Rafsanjani is trying to reduce the pressure on himself and his supporters by entering the parliament in next year’s parliamentary elections, and prepare the ground for playing an influential role in the upcoming presidential elections.” [8]

In addition to the obvious goals that the reformists mention for themselves and Mr. Hashemi, we can also mention other things. Firstly, in this situation, getting the majority of the parliament in a coalition of agents and reformists of the minority of the parliament and critical fundamentalists is a success to increase the pressure on the 10th government, and the next result is to increase the probability of getting the 11th presidential seat.

If we consider the above intention as a strategy for the above movement, its tactic will be to create more distance between fundamentalists, which at its current stage is considered a great goal in order to weaken the front of fundamentalism, especially the government.

۳- bipolar situation

Whether this situation is between two currents of reformists and fundamentalists, or between two spectrums of government fundamentalists and other fundamentalists, it is less likely than other options, but it is conceivable in several ways.

One is that the efforts of fundamentalists with the government as their center for unity will lead to the formation of the united front of fundamentalism, in which case all their opponents will be in a single front.

The second situation that helps this situation is when the reformers boycott the elections according to the advice of the extremists and set a condition for participation in the contests, according to the leaders of sedition. In this situation, fundamentalists act in two poles in front of each other and enter the parliament in new spectrums. This state has its own advantages and disadvantages, including the confrontation of fundamentalists and the introduction of concepts such as pure fundamentalists and impure fundamentalists and other accusations will be far from the dignity of fundamentalism. At the same time, there is a possibility of this front multiplying to other spectrums as well. We can examine this situation, which is actually another situation, in a separate option.

۴- Unipolar situation

This situation is imaginable in a situation where the reformists refrain from entering the competitions and the fundamentalists manage the stage wisely. In this situation, the fundamentalists can take advantage of the opportunity instead of excommunicating each other and implement the idea of a new skin in the country’s political currents, so that in a situation where the grounds for a serious transformation in the country’s political atmosphere have been created and the Islamic system has also paid its costs, an outward appearance And the titles of the past events are changed and disloyal groups are excluded from the system.

In this situation, instead of religious left and right, fundamentalist and reformist, all the forces loyal to the Islamic revolution are organized under new titles, the competitions are within the family, and those reformers who have shown their innocence from seditionists are attracted to the critics.

This does not mean ignoring different tastes and eliminating parties and groups, but the fundamentalists can, as an example, in a serious competition issue various and diverse lists with the names of critical fundamentalists, ruling fundamentalists and parliamentary fundamentalists, which will attract the votes of different strata of people. become

This situation can be implemented if any possibility of exploitation by opponents of fundamentalism is eliminated and competitions take place entirely within the system. This is while we are currently witnessing unanalyzable behaviors of different spectrums of fundamentalism, despite the unfavorable conditions.

Critics of the government are desperately trying to attract moderate reformers, while some fundamentalists in the government believe that the 10th government should not be singled out in the circle of fundamentalism, and they will not give up any effort to attract the votes of non-fundamentalists.

Other fundamentalists in the community of sacrificers and martyrs, the Islamic community and the front of followers of the line of the Imam and leadership also consider the danger of the ultra-fundamentalists who, so-called, have crossed fundamentalism and are looking for gray votes, more than the famous seditionists. These behaviors are exactly in line with the tactics of the reformers, which we will discuss in future issues.

They have concluded and will make a decision based on this performance.