Ancient Syria
Modern-day Syria, a country located in the Middle East on the shore of the Mediterranean Sea, is one of the most ancient inhabited regions on Earth.
The oldest human remains found in Syria date back to roughly 700,000 years ago. Archeologists have uncovered skeletons and bones of Neanderthals that lived in the region during this period.
Ebla, a city in Syria that’s thought to have existed around 3,000 B.C., is one of the oldest settlements to be excavated.
Throughout ancient times, Syria was occupied and ruled by several empires, including the Egyptians, Hittites, Sumerians, Mitanni, Assyrians, Babylonians, Canaanites, Phoenicians, Arameans, Amorites, Persians, Greeks and Romans.
Ancient Syria was a region referred to often in the Bible. In one well-known account, the apostle Paul cited the “road to Damascus”—the largest city in Syria—as the place where he had visions that led to his Christian conversion.
When the Roman Empire fell, Syria became part of the Eastern or Byzantine Empire.
In 637 A.D., Muslim armies defeated the Byzantine Empire and took control of Syria. The Islamic religion spread quickly throughout the region, and its different factions rose to power.
Damascus eventually became the capital of the Islamic world, but was replaced by Baghdad in Iraq around 750 A.D. This change led to economic decline in Syria, and for the next several centuries, the region became unstable and was ruled by various groups.
In 1516, the Ottoman Empire conquered Syria and remained in power until 1918. This was considered a relatively peaceful and stable period in Syria’s history.
The Sykes-Picot Agreement
During World War I, French and British diplomats secretly agreed to divide the Ottoman Empire into zones, as part of the Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1916.
Under the Sykes-Picot Agreement, most Arab lands under the rule of the Ottoman Empire were divided into British or French spheres of influence with the conclusion of World War I.
British and Arab troops captured Damascus and Aleppo in 1918, and the French took control of modern-day Syria and Lebanon in 1920. These arrangements put an end to roughly 400 years of Ottoman rule in the region.
The French reign led to uprisings and revolts among the people in Syria. From 1925 to 1927, Syrians united against the French occupation in what’s now known as the Great Syrian Revolt.
In 1936, France and Syria negotiated a treaty of independence, which allowed Syria to remain independent but gave France military and economic power.
During World War II, British and Free French troops occupied Syria—but shortly after the war ended, Syria officially became an independent country in 1946
Syria as an Independent Nation
The years immediately following Syria’s declared independence were marked by instability and repeated government coups.
Syria joined with Egypt and became the United Arab Republic in 1958, but the union split a few short years later in 1961. The 1960s brought more military coups, revolts and riots.
In 1963, the Arab Socialist Baath Party, which was active throughout the Middle East since the late 1940s, seized power of Syria in a coup known as the Baath Revolution.
In 1967, during the Six Day War, Israel seized the Golan Heights, a rocky plateau located in southwestern Syria. Conflict over this coveted area continued for years and is still ongoing.
Hafez al-Assad
In 1970, Hafez al-Assad, the Syrian minister of defense, overthrew the de facto leader of Syria, Salah Jadid. He remained in power as president for 30 years, until his death in 2000.
Hafez al-Assad was part of the Islam Alawite, which is a minority Shiite sect. During his presidency, Hafez was credited with strengthening the Syrian military with the help of the Soviets.
Syria and Egypt went to war with Israel in 1973. Shortly after this conflict, Syria also got involved in the civil war in Lebanon, where it has maintained a military presence ever since.
In 1982, the Muslim Brotherhood organized a rebellion against the Assad regime in the city of Hama, and Assad responded by arresting, torturing and executing political rebels. Estimates vary, but many experts believe the retaliation took the lives of about 20,000 civilians.
The same year, Israel invaded Lebanon and attacked the Syrian army stationed there. But by 1983, Israel and Lebanon announced that the hostility between the two countries was over.
Toward the end of his life, Hafez attempted to make more peaceful relations with Israel and Iraq.
Bashar al-Assad
When Hafez al-Assad died in 2000, his son Bashar became president at age 34.
After Bashar took power, the constitution was amended to reduce the minimum age of the president from 40 to 34.
A medical student, Bashar wasn’t the first choice for successor. His older brother, Bassel, was the next in line to take his father’s place, but he was killed in an automobile accident in 1994.
At the start of his presidency, Bashar al-Assad released 600 political prisoners, and Syrians were hopeful that their new leader would grant more freedoms and impose less oppression than his father.
However, within a year, Bashar used threats and arrests to stop pro-reform activism
The future of Syria (also traditionally known as “Sham”) will face a complex set of challenges and possibilities.
The fall of Assad has led to major changes in the political, social and security structure of Syria and
will especially have significant effects on the balance of power in the region.
In the following, we examine some possible scenarios for Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad:
۱٫ jang ghodrat dakhli ve taqsim keshor
ba saghoot rezhim asad, keshor vard yek doreh tulani az bisobati shodeh keh dar an geronpantacpehei mokhtelf mosleh
ve siasi baraye konterl ghodrat raghabat konand.
dar salenpehei akhir, geronpantacpehei mokhtelf sori, az jomleh nirveyaye mokhalef, geronpantacpehei kard,
nirveyaye eslamgara ve digar firagh mazzehabi ve gumi dar hal faalit dar dakhal sorieh budehand.
alan keh hokomet markazi bacpehtor kamel foro pashid, ehtamal taqsim keshor bah menategh tahat konterl
geronpantacpehei mokhtelf vojud dard.
Western region (traditionally supporting the Assad regime): Areas under the control of the Syrian army, such as Damascus,
Homs, Latakia and Tartus, which have remained in the hands of the regime since the start of the civil war,
may be exposed to external and internal pressures with the fall of Assad. take Here, Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah
may try to maintain their influence and in some cases may enter into negotiations with different groups
to form a new government.
۲٫ Greater influence of Iran and Hezbollah
One of the biggest concerns of Israel and Western countries after the fall of Assad
is the increasing influence of Iran and its proxy groups (especially the Lebanese Hezbollah) in Syria.
Bashar al-Assad fell and a power vacuum was created, fearing that Iran might try to strengthen its presence in Syria
and use the country as a corridor to transfer weapons to Hezbollah and other groups it supports.
and create a threat to Israel’s security, he has taken the lead and is trying to maintain the upper hand
in Syria by bombing 400 points of Syrian military infrastructure with the help of America and moving
on the ground towards Damascus and the Golan region and Quneitra.
۳٫ Involvement of foreign actors
Various foreign powers that are present in Syria or have somehow been involved in the Syrian civil war,
play an important role in determining the future of this country. These actors are:
America and Western Allies: America may continue to support groups opposed to Assad and try
to bring Syria under its influence.
In this scenario, the US would likely seek political solutions to end the war, but might resist
Iranian and Russian influence in Syria. Right now, it seems that America is cautiously continuing
to stabilize its presence so that the occupying forces cannot act arbitrarily and keep Syria under its control.
Russia: Russia, which has actively supported the Assad regime since 2015, will likely try
to maintain its role in Syria’s future once Assad falls.
Moscow may try to form a non-Assad government in which Russia’s interests are still guaranteed
Now, by giving asylum to Assad and his family and evacuating his military barracks in Syria,
he is probably looking for a behind-the-scenes agreement with America over the war in Ukraine.
Turkey: Türkiye, which was opposed to the Assad regime, continues its efforts to support Bashar Assad’s opponents.
Ankara is also concerned about the Kurds and their influence in Syria, and may try to prevent
the expansion of Kurdish independence by creating a “safe zone” in northern Syria.
Even now, with the help of America and the behind-the-scenes participation of the Zionists,
they have imported their forces and heavy military equipment from northern Syria,
and it is not unlikely that they are trying to divide this country. According to the promises made by America.
From a geopolitical and security point of view, Israel pays special attention to Syria and
the situation of this country in the region. In particular, several main factors make Israel continuously follow
the situation in Syria and in some cases have concerns about this country:
۱-Common borders and security threats
Israel and Syria have a common border, which has long been one of the sensitive borders involved in military tensions.
Throughout history, there have been several wars between the two countries, including the 1948, 1956, 1967 (Six-Day War)
and 1973 (Yom Kippur War). In the 1967 war, Israel occupied the Syrian Golan Heights, and this region remains a sensitive
point in Israel-Syria relations.
Israel is extremely worried that armed groups supported by Iran or Hezbollah will settle in Syria and pose threats to the security of that country. For this reason, in recent years, Israel has been trying to target Iran’s military facilities and groups supported by Iran in Syria, unofficially and in the form of airstrikes. He also destroyed Syria’s air force and atomic force.
۲٫ Iran’s influence in Syria
One of the most important concerns of Israel is the expansion of Iran’s influence in Syria. Iran had strengthened its military presence in the country by supporting Bashar al-Assad’s government in the Syrian civil war.
This presence is particularly worrisome for Israel because Iran is seeking to create a “land bridge” from Tehran to Beirut (the center of Hezbollah) through Iraq and Syria.
Israel fears that this infiltration, especially through the establishment of Iranian military bases or proxy forces, will create a threat to its security, especially on the northern border (Golan).
۳٫ Golan Heights
The Golan Heights, which was occupied by Israel from Syria in 1967, is one of the disputed points between the two countries.
Israel annexed the area in 1981, but the international community still recognizes it as Syrian territory.
The strategic importance of the Golan Heights is very high due to its geographical location and military perspective.
Since this area dominates parts of Syria and northern Israel, it is very important for Israel to maintain control over it.
For this reason, immediately when Bashar fell, he occupied the rest of the Golan as well.
