The process of protests and conflicts in Libya from the beginning brought to mind the whispers of the beginning of a civil war. In the meantime, the intervention of foreign countries and NATO (although with the permission of the United Nations Security Council) made the situation much more complicated.
What is tried to be addressed in this article is the explanation of these complications and its impact on the future of Libya and the government after Gaddafi.. Although the immediate effect of the intervention of NATO forces in Libya was to prevent the defeat of Gaddafi’s opposition forces, this intervention operationalized the conflict and division of the country. Although it was said from the beginning that the purpose of the intervention of Western forces in Libya was to prevent the killing of civilians, what is seen today is that the attack of NATO forces on Libya through airplanes and (recently by helicopters) not only reduces civilian casualties. It has not helped, but civilians have become the victims of these attacks in two ways. one that NATO attacks usually expose them to slaughter, and secondly, the escape of civilians as a result of increased attacks on residential areas in cities. Therefore, NATO attacks on Libya have sent a huge wave of refugees to neighboring countries.
Today, the West clearly states that the goal of NATO’s attacks on Libya is to change the regime. Despite this, regime change may actually be the immediate goal of NATO and the West, but there is another goal for this campaign, which is to destroy the technical infrastructure. and the economy of Libya as one of the largest Islamic countries in North Africa. In fact, NATO seems to prefer that Libya rises from the dust of this war, a broken and backward country. In the current situation, Libya is divided into two parts, this fact may happen, but first of all, it should be known that there has always been a long-term historical foundation in the issue of the separation of East and West Libya. Basically, the situation we are witnessing in Libya today is also like this. Gaddafi and his supporters control the western part of Libya and the political center of this country, and the opposition groups in the eastern part of the country, i.e. Benghazi, Misrata and other cities, are in control and there are military conflicts between these two groups. This has caused Libya to become two different fabrics that have two different areas of governance. The immediate effect of this division is that the voices of Gaddafi’s opponents can no longer be heard from the west of Libya, because the control of Gaddafi’s supporters in this area is so great that if there are opponents in the western region, this gap and division is an opportunity for widening and opposition to They do not give.
The effect of the continuation of this situation (that is, the division of Libya and the continuation of NATO operations) has caused a kind of strategic threat to Libya’s neighbors. On the one hand, this strategic threat is due to the seriousness of the refugee issue, and on the other hand, it is due to the threat of Al-Qaeda’s influence in the Arab Maghreb or the Islamic Maghreb. Al-Qaeda has a history of serious presence in Algeria, Niger, and Mali, and therefore, the possibility of them taking advantage of the conditions and entering Libya is very important.
Another issue that exists regarding the situation in Libya and must be addressed is that; Why in Egypt and Tunisia, the transformations were completed and resolved with much lower costs, while we did not witness the direct intervention of foreign forces. But in Libya, despite the fact that foreign forces entered Libya in favor of the opposition, there is no ability to end the case and bring the conflict to a conclusion. There are several reasons for this. One of the points is that the Libyan government system is not a wise system. The second point refers to the knowledge of the Libyan political system. The system that Gaddafi defined and established is a Jamahari system that is specifically based on two foundations: First is the person of Gaddafi and his ideology formulated in the famous Green Book of Gaddafi and the second is the specific type of political culture of the Libyan people. There is a famous proverb in Libya that “following the party is treason”, in the same way the concept of political representation in the Jamahari system is a concept with a negative value. In this regard, the opposition’s attempt to expel Gaddafi from Libya means their attempt to overthrow the ruling tribe and replace it with other tribes. With this explanation, it should be said that what happened in Egypt or Tunisia was mostly a protest against the ruler and his relatives, but in Libya, the attempt to overthrow the Jamahari regime means the overthrow of Gaddafi and, as a result, one of the largest tribes in Libya, and therefore the popular resistance in Libya It is formed against opponents. The resistance of the people who belong to the Gaddafi tribe or that their tribe has a close cooperation agreement with Gaddafi, in other words, in Egypt and Tunisia there was a separation between the regime and the state, but in Libya the regime itself and if an attempt is made to destroy the regime, the entire system and government must be destroyed, and therefore the entire ruling tribe in Libya, plus their allies, from the position of first-class citizen to the position of citizen in the best analysis are equal to others and on the same level other citizens will become, therefore, from the point of view of Gaddafi’s supporters who are in power and have special privileges, this will not be considered positive.
In the case of Libya, another question that can be raised is whether the passage of time will work in favor of Gaddafi or in favor of the opposition. Most analysts believe that the passage of time is to the detriment of Gaddafi And it is in favor of the opponents because; 1- With the prolongation of the period of crisis and conflict, Gaddafi’s money will end. The important point here is that no one has an accurate assessment of how much Gaddafi transferred the proceeds from oil sales to his personal accounts or the accounts of his family members outside of Libya. But naturally, the analysis is that as this conflict continues, these resources will become weaker.
۲- The next item is the discussion of oil and fuel. With the prolongation of the crisis and the possibility of more air attacks on the Libyan oil facilities that are under the control of Gaddafi forces, if NATO can cut off the vital oil artery of Gaddafi, the probability that Gaddafi will surrender to the situation and leave power will increase. And 3- With the passage of time, it may be possible to create conditions like the situation of the Yemeni dictator for Gaddafi. It means Gaddafi specifically attacked
Although these analyzes exist, the author’s analysis is based on the fact that the passage of time will bring risks to the opponents as well. The first point is that as the duration of the conflict increases, the amount of destruction and human casualties increases. As the volume of these destructions and human casualties increases, the living conditions of the masses of people will become more difficult, and therefore they will stop resisting the plain or even start resisting the exposed ones. Second, the country is torn in two and the eastern identity And the west is formed in Libya. This issue causes people to gradually develop the mentality that the country is being divided into two parts, and at least in today’s political culture of nations, dividing the country in this way is not considered valuable. The third point is the influence of al-Qaeda elements. Al-Qaeda’s hand is still not seen in Libyan cases. With the continuation of this process, both sides of the barrier will gradually weaken and the possibility of the infiltration of Al-Qaeda elements will increase.
The next point is that with the passage of time, the deterioration of the human and economic situation in the areas under Gaddafi’s control will increase. When the situation of the people worsens there, the hostility of the people who are in this situation will be directed at the opponents and not at Gaddafi because Gaddafi will be in a position of oppression and will have the face of someone who is resisting a foreign attack. The final point in this section is the increase in the security, political and economic costs of the neighbors. As time passes, the neighbors will be more sensitive to this crisis and their costs will increase, and this will not be in their favor.
And the last point in this matter is whether the time has come to start the political process in Libya?
Until now, the parties to this conflict have rejected any possibility of negotiation. The reason is also known. The opposing side has made Gaddafi’s departure from the country as a precondition for starting their negotiations. Gaddafi’s side does not start negotiations, because unlike Egypt and Tunisia, the resolution issued by the United Nations against Libya has a clause according to which the factors that caused the killing of civilians will be introduced and tried by the International Criminal Court (ICC). be. Therefore, Gaddafi knows that if he ends this war, whether he stays inside Libya or leaves it, all countries have the authority to arrest him and hand him over to the criminal court based on the rules of international law. In this way, no significant effort has been made to start the political process.
Another point is that the balance of power in Libya today is different. Internal groups, Muammar Gaddafi himself, and foreign forces are depicted as three spheres of power in Libya. On the one hand, foreign forces have entered Libya in line with their interests, and on the other hand, Muammar Gaddafi and his supporters have good areas in Libya. That is, the western regions of the country and the center of the country, which are sensitive areas in Libya, are under the control of Gaddafi and his supporters. (In African countries and Arab countries, we are witnessing a kind of transfer of power in a specific framework, and that is that any group that controls the center of the country is in power. For example, in Afghanistan, if Kabul is controlled by a group, that group in It is power; in Iraq, any group that controls Baghdad is in power; in Libya, any group that controls Tripoli is in power. It means having the political centers of the countries because of the strong financial, economic and political potential that Dara, it determines who has the power.) These issues, along with the lack of a specific force to take his place after Gaddafi, have led to a kind of balance of internal interests in Libya. Therefore, it can be said that this period is the transitional period of Libya. This means that this period is long-term, and in the future, it is possible that Muammar Gaddafi may step down, or NATO pressure will increase for Gaddafi to step down, or it is even possible that Europe and NATO will reach a compromise with Gaddafi. Therefore, various options are estimated and predicting what will happen in Libya is somewhat out of the norm.
However, in the writer’s opinion, according to the current situation in Libya, perhaps a set of diplomatic measures is appropriate in the current situation. The first point is that due to the lack of practical action by regional organizations such as the Organization of the Islamic Conference or the Arab League And the African Union, it is better to activate the D8 organization in this field with the initiative of Iran and Turkey and with the cooperation of Nigeria and Egypt. The possible process that can be designed in this case is to force the two parties to negotiate with the mediation of the third party, which is D8. In the next step, with the cooperation of the United Nations, there should be a ceasefire between the two sides of the conflict and defining the borders of the two sides. Also, it is unlikely that he will be willing to step down until Gaddafi’s legal proceedings are known and he is not given some kind of immunity. It should also guarantee amnesty He acted on the equality of all Libyan nationals and in the last stage, by forming a parliament to draft a constitution, he moved towards the creation of a new military in Libya..
