The global economic order is rapidly changing and its evolution will also transform the distribution of power in the international system. People like Emanuel Wallerstein believe that since 1970, the order created by the Second World War under the leadership of the United States has suffered a crisis and the events of September 11, 2001 are the last signs of the decline of American hegemony. However, the numerous political, economic and military events that have occurred since 2001 tell us that the existing order is out of the crisis stage and has entered the decline stage, and we are now in the transition period to a new order.
America, as a hegemonic power that has a reciprocal relationship with the existing order, today lacks the necessary economic, political and military foundations to impose its desires, rules and norms in international strategic issues and fields. The main reason for America’s current situation is mainly due to the decline of its economic power. What are the reasons for this decline in economic power, need to be investigated separately, but Ms. Ariana Huffington in her book “Third World America” presents an accurate picture of the economic situation of America today: worn out and inefficient infrastructure, failure to make necessary investments for modernization and Modernization, the decline of the middle class as a force that caused America to gain power, organized political and economic corruption, the inefficiency of the educational system, etc. are among the characteristics of America in the 21st century. America has a debt of 19 trillion dollars, of which 35% is debt to other countries. This debt will become meaningful when the dollar loses its position as the international currency, in which case the United States, which enjoyed the international advantage of the dollar for cheap imports, will not be able to import these types of imports and enter an inflationary crisis. will be. The study of global financial trends shows that in less than a decade, the dollar will no longer be the most common and dominant global currency. The conclusion of dozens of bilateral monetary agreements during the last decade indicates that countries do not want to use a third currency in their commercial transactions. During the past months, we have seen massive gold imports from Asian countries, especially China. American creditors are offering American bonds at a low price (Debt Dumping) and in an unprecedented event, they have sold nearly 225 billion dollars of American bonds below the price in the financial markets in 2015 alone to save themselves from this ” Get rid of bad assets.
International institutions such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Trade Organization (WTO), which had the task of satisfactorily injecting the norms and rules of American hegemony into the surrounding societies in order to continue Washington’s hegemony, have almost lost their effectiveness today. If it was once claimed that countries should either become members of the WTO or remain excluded from global trade, the ineffectiveness of the WTO has led even the member countries to bilateral, multilateral and regional trade arrangements that are more compatible with national and regional norms and conditions. and are more operational.
America today does not have decisive power in the international political and military arena. The inability to achieve the declared goal of overthrowing Iran’s political system and regaining control over the country’s resources, the failure to prevent the annexation of Crimea to Russia, and the inability to overthrow the legitimate government of Bashar al-Assad in Syria are clear examples of this. The formation of powerful separatist movements in the states of Texas, Vermont, Alaska and Hawaii shows that even the union of states in North America is in danger of collapsing. The new poles of power do not confirm the leading role of America as a hegemon, and there is no broad political consensus in support of Washington’s goals and policies. America is not able to respond to the interests of the allies and cannot pay attention to their motives. This section can be concluded with the recent words of Henry Kissinger, who said, “During the Cold War, America’s material capacity [and available resources] was so high that the allocation of resources to a specific action was considered an important task.” But the world has changed and the solutions of the past are no longer applicable. Over the decades, we found ourselves in a situation where we realized that we can’t simply get what we want by identifying the problem.”
But what are the characteristics of the new order? Will, for example, a hegemonic stability based on Chinese power and norms be formed and we will witness another unipolar order? The facts of the world tell us that the answer to this question is negative. We will have a lot of powerful actors and they can even be ranked. But these actors alone will not be able to influence strategic trends. The distribution of power in the international system will be based on coalitions and alliances of countries. If we accept this assumption, another important question is how these alliances should be? The failed experience of the European Union tells us that alliances that integrate national governments into larger units, and reduce the sovereign powers of countries, cause the failure and inefficiency of the alliance. The recent economic crisis in Europe, especially the issue of Greece, showed that it is not possible to define a single currency for countries that have different economic powers and pursue diverse economic policies. The result of such a situation is imposing the cost of unification on countries that have high economic power, and today, Germany and France bear this cost. Britain’s vote to leave the union, despite being independent from the euro, also shows that countries do not want economic alliances and coalitions to be elevated to the level of political alliances and to sacrifice their independent political desires.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization can be a successful model for securing the interests of countries in the new order. Because it follows the approach of maintaining the comprehensive independence of the members while promoting common interests. We can refer to the declaration of the end of the meeting of the heads of Shanghai members in 2002 in St. Petersburg, which explains this well: “The issuers of the declaration want to show the spirit of Shanghai. This spirit means mutual respect of different civilizations for each other and common prosperity.
Following the principles of the United Nations Charter, respecting the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of each other, not interfering in each other’s internal affairs, not using force and not even threatening to use force, taking advantage of the benefits of equality and common interests, solving all issues from Through consultation, etc., it is consistent with the principles and objectives of the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran. According to the declaration of St. Petersburg, which emphasized the acceptance of new members who accept these principles and goals, Iran’s joining Shanghai will have many benefits for both Iran and this organization. I use the interpretation of Mr. Dimitri Mznetsov, Secretary General of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, that “if Iran joins the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, this issue will greatly contribute to the organization’s power, expand multilateral cooperation, and strengthen the organization’s influence in important international issues.” And I would add that Iran’s membership will strengthen the balance in favor of the Shanghai Organization in the conflict over maintaining the current order and shaping a new and desirable order. Iran currently has growing economic relations with all the members of the organization, including Kyrgyzstan, and more importantly, it has friendly political relations with the members.
According to the estimate of the American National Intelligence Council, Iran and Russia will be the world’s energy kings in 2025 due to their huge reserves. In addition to huge energy resources, Iran is currently in the top ranks of the world in various fields of science and technology. Membership in the World Nuclear Technology Club, the first rank of air and space technology in the West Asian region and the 19th rank in the world, the first rank of biotechnology among Islamic countries and the 23rd rank of the world, the first rank of chemistry in the region and the 13th rank of the world, the sixth rank of nanotechnology in The world and numerous achievements in the field of inventions and discoveries have made Iran a scientific and economic power. Iran’s transit position should also be added to these equations.
Iran has been an observer member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization since 2005, and now with the cancellation of UN sanctions resolutions, the ground for Tehran’s final accession to this organization is ready.
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