Although the Transitional Government Council led by Mustafa Abdul Jalil is ready to take power, the complex tribal structure in Libya will make it difficult to establish a democratic system. The presence of the “Al-Qaddafi” tribe in the regions of Sabah and the Libyan coast, which has a tribal affiliation with Colonel Gaddafi, will certainly not simply allow it to lose its material and spiritual privileges.
Also, Tuareg, Amazigh, Berber, and Tabukah tribes have a causal connection with the tribes of Algeria, Mali, Niger, Chad, and Sudan, and they will have more demands in the new Libyan system. During the 42-year rule of the Libyan dictator, these tribes were deprived of some social privileges, such as having a “national code” and the right to eat and drink, due to their African roots. These tribes will have new demands from the future Libyan system, part of which will be related to the organization of the livelihood, social and political situation of these tribes. Therefore, the fall of Colonel Gaddafi can lead to tribal rebellions in Libya because the ousted dictator of Libya had armed the tribes in the south and west of Libya a long time ago. However, the 6-month experience of the Libyan Transitional Government Council in the field of running the affairs of this country can be considered an important factor in neutralizing Colonel Gaddafi’s next plots.
Although the fate of Gaddafi himself is still unknown, what is certain is that his government system has completely collapsed.
In the past, the deposed dictator of Libya tried to divide Libya into two parts, eastern and western, and to rule in western Libya. But the advance of the Libyan revolutionaries towards the west and the city of Tripoli and the liberation of the Libyan capital from the forces loyal to Gaddafi, made the plots of the Libyan dictator come to nothing.
It seems that the Libyan Transitional Government Council has been able to dominate the political, security and social situation of Libya due to the support of a wide international support.
But if the revolutionaries cannot quickly arrest and try Gaddafi, he will naturally use the option of creating a tribal conflict. There is a possibility that he will unite other nomadic and desert tribes of Libya against the new government of this country by using the influence of “Al-Qaddasfa”.
Therefore, due to the tribal structure of Libya, this country will witness internal tensions for a long time because this country has not had experience in the field of democracy and democracy for more than 42 years.
Due to the lack of a charismatic leader who can organize the revolution of the Libyan nation, it does not seem that this country will witness the formation of a democratic system in the near future.
What is certain is that Libya has entered a new environment after 42 years of absolute and completely tribal dictatorship, but the formation of a democratic system needs time. Drafting the constitution, conducting parliamentary and presidential elections based on a civil definition and away from the influence of tribal leaders can help Libya to overcome the current situation.
Conversation with Dr. Ahmad Bakshi
The old Libyan colonel is spending the last days of his 42-year rule over Libya. This is the sentence that many analysts of African issues say about the future of Libya with the recognition of Gaddafi’s opponents by many countries in the world. Iranian diplomacy in the latest situation in Libya A university professor and analyst of African issues has reviewed
The meeting of the Libyan contact group, which was held in Istanbul last week, led to the recognition of the opposition by some countries in the world. Do you think that the recognition of the opposition can have an effect on Gaddafi’s resignation?
The result of the discussions of the contact group meeting held last week in Istanbul, Turkey, was the recognition of the Libyan opposition by 32 countries, among which the Arab League, NATO, neighboring countries of Libya and the United States can be mentioned. But the most important news in this regard was that the US Secretary of State Mrs. Clinton recognized the group of opponents and opponents of Mr. Gaddafi. After holding this meeting, positions are taken in the direction of Mr. Gaddafi’s departure. Russia has also announced that Gaddafi must step down and we are looking for a structure for Libya after Gaddafi. On Sunday, CNN aired a report entitled Libya after Gaddafi, in which Gaddafi’s departure was assumed and the options of Libya’s political structure after Gaddafi were examined.
Therefore, although Gaddafi’s resignation was discussed until next month, in recent days there is talk of his resignation in the next few days. All these discussions lead us to the conclusion that NATO, the West and neighboring countries of Libya and on the other hand Turkey and the African Union were somehow negotiating for the participation of the opposition and Gaddafi in the future of Libya, considering the bad image that Mr. Gaddafi With the bombing of people and mass killing, as well as the verdict of the international court to arrest Mr. Gaddafi, Gaddafi’s trump card was completely destroyed both at the international level, at the regional level, and at the domestic level.
Another discussion about Libya was that America, NATO and the West still do not know about the group of opponents and opponents, and they actually wanted to buy time by wasting time to create groups to replace Gaddafi and create a political atmosphere after Gaddafi. My analysis is that we should examine the political structure of Libya in the future without Mr. Gaddafi.
Therefore, it seems that space is moving towards a Libya without Gaddafi, and Gaddafi’s version is practically finished, and it is far from the mind that even his survivors will participate in the power. Because the West wanted to be able to limit the movements to the extent of political reforms, like Egypt or Tunisia, and actually involve a part of the body of the previous regime in the future political structure, but the atmosphere of the past few months shows that practically the survivors of the previous regime, the new political structure and the opponents will not accept and these two forces will conflict with each other.
As a result, considering that Libya is the strategic depth of Europe and the oil issue is very important in this country, the crisis in this region should be managed as soon as possible and conditions should be provided for Libya after Gaddafi. By identifying and giving legitimacy to the opponents of Mr. Gaddafi, the Western countries are preparing the space so that they can introduce the opposition representative as the representative of Libya to the United Nations General Assembly in September. Therefore, it seems that in the next month, we will witness that the opposition will be able to appear in international organizations and have representatives.
Considering Gaddafi’s negotiations with the French and on the other hand, the discussion of more severe military measures against Gaddafi, in your opinion, how will Gaddafi’s departure be done? Will this issue be resolved through negotiation or will a military solution be used for this issue?
It seems that there are moves to resolve the issue diplomatically. France is somehow mediating in this issue so that killing Mr. Gaddafi is not discussed. Because the NATO commander announced in the past weeks that we know where Gaddafi is and we can bomb that place and kill him.
Of course, it seems that either these negotiations have satisfied Mr. Gaddafi, and if he is not satisfied, the public opinion of NATO and America is justified by the economic crisis and seeks to end the Libyan crisis as soon as possible. This termination can be through destroying Mr. Gaddafi and it can be through diplomacy and peace, but in any case, although the negotiations were carried out before with the aim of bringing Mr. Gaddafi to the stage where he will be exiled to a third country, but now due to International Court’s ruling, if there are negotiations going on, these negotiations will be fruitless. Because Gaddafi is actually wanted and must be tried, and the day after the opposition comes to power, their first demand is to try Gaddafi.
Considering all these issues, the issue of negotiations is in the middle so that only the trial of Mr. Gaddafi is discussed, and at the moment, there is no question of his participation in power. Because neither the international system nor the opponents accept this issue. Negotiations can only slow down the sharp blade of the trial and the court and draw the attention of the opponents to the damages caused by this war and conflict, and on the other hand, satisfy Gaddafi to step down from power.
But regardless of these issues, the signals coming from the West are that we will witness very intense bombings in the next few days so that the discussion of surrendering or killing Gaddafi will come to an end. Therefore, Libya without Gaddafi has been keyed, although the issue of Libya after Gaddafi has caused concerns.
Considering that Gaddafi also claims that he has fans and a popular base, do you think that if Gaddafi steps down in any way, the government that will come to work in Libya will be able to manage the situation?
The problem that Libya is struggling with and other countries did not have this problem is that in Libya there is a fringe protest against the text. The protest started in the peripheral cities of Libya from the east of the country and the city of Benghazi and has now reached the outskirts of Tripoli. In other countries such as Tunisia and Egypt, these protests were formed in text and moved from the capital to other cities.
The reason for this is that the Libyan government enjoys oil rents and has created a system of clientelism, i.e. lord and serf. The government distributes rents among the people of the capital and buys obedience in return. Despite the fact that the war has reached the gates of Tripoli, there is no protest against Gaddafi in Tripoli itself. The lack of protests in Tripoli, whether due to rent or the security structure of the Gaddafi regime, has allowed Gaddafi to claim that the people want his capital. Therefore, one of the problems of Libya after Gaddafi is this issue.
One of the scenarios that I see for the future of Libya is the prediction of the continuation of the civil war between different groups. Due to the fact that no group, tribe or ethnic group is the hegemon or the dominant force and considering that during this period weapons have been distributed among all social groups, the day after Gaddafi we will witness civil wars.
On the other hand, due to the security of the space, we may witness the establishment of some military regimes. Therefore, the Libyan society does not really have a democratic structure and conditions. Because like what we saw in Egypt, there is no civil society in Libya. Therefore, we may see a cycle of coups in this country. Although NATO may continue its presence in this country and sharpen the edge of militarism for its own interests, the cycle of successive coups in Libya is still very likely.
Another scenario for the future of Libya is that space will be in a transitional state for some time. It means that there is practically this state of war and flight in order to find a main hegemon.
The next scenario is the scenario of patrimonialism, based on which oil will continue to be distributed among the people through any group that is in power, and a ruling group will continue the policies of Gaddafi. Because, for sure, in the single-product country of Libya, oil forms the budget of many sectors. This means that a new system will be created, but Mr. Gaddafi’s process will continue with the same structure. Of course, it goes without saying that the West can win in all these scenarios.
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