“ Neville Chamberlain ” [ 1 ] He was the British Prime Minister between 1937 and 1940. During the short period when Anan was in power in London; He believed that he could avoid war by compromising with Hitler.
Based on this belief, Chamberlain signed the Munich Agreement with Hitler on September 29, 1938, by which Great Britain and France, in the absence of the representatives of the Czechoslovak Republic, agreed to hand over the Czech Sudetenland region to Hitler’s Germany; But Hitler, who soon became familiar with Chamberlain’s less intelligent and tolerant personality, made the peace agreement of September 29, 1938 the basis for taking over the rest of Czechoslovakia.[ 2 ]
This incident made Chamberlain’s tolerant policy in the field of foreign policy to be named appeasement diplomacy [ 3 ] . A method that failed miserably at birth and weakened Chamberlain’s power base in London to such an extent that he resigned as Prime Minister on May 10, 1940.
Although Chamberlain had realized his big mistake in appeasement with Hitler before resigning, after Germany’s thunderous attack on Poland and the defeat of the Allies in Norway, Britain was in a very difficult and complicated situation, and Chamberlain’s wisest move was to resign. [ 4 ]
Munich Agreement – from left to right: Chamberlain, Edouard Daladier, Hitler, Mussolini, Gallezzo Ciano
The actions of the American government after the JCPOA are very similar to Hitler’s behavior after the agreement with Great Britain over Czechoslovakia. In the meantime, the smile diplomacy of the 11th government is something similar to Chamberlain’s appeasement with Hitler. Several hundred days have passed since the implementation of the JCPOA, Iran has carried out exactly all the measures included in the JCPOA. – It fully confirms the reports of the Iran Cooperation Agency – but there is still no news of the implementation of the obligations of the western side.
Concern about the prospect of silence in the face of the West’s post-JCPOA behavior is not only limited to non-compliance with the provisions of the JCPOA. Over the past three months, the behavior of America has not only been positive, but in some cases, actions far worse than before the JCPOA era can be seen in the behavior of Americans.
The way taken by the government of Tadbir towards the behavior of one roof and two airs of America has no proportion with the actions of the other party. While the White House, along with the Congress of this country, is circumventing the sanctions and imposing difficult conditions on our country with various tricks; The government has only issued a few internal and external statements.
Although Rouhani’s government’s behavior towards the Western side is understandable and completely stems from the early enthusiasm at the time of signing the JCPOA, the continuation of the current process will put Rouhani’s situation in an irreversible state. The president is caught in the dilemma between knowing the JCPOA as the key and trusting the West and on the other hand, repeatedly violating the JCPOA. Accepting the behavior of the United States as a violation of the JCPOA calls into question the life of the government for almost three years, and not accepting this fact is an obstacle to the fulfillment of the president’s promises to improve the economic and living conditions of the people.
With the continuation of the current process, the government in the not too distant future will not be able to answer the question raised in the minds of the people about the futility of investing in the JCPOA and the damage caused by the agreement on the country’s nuclear industry, so probably Rouhani, considering the past process and the uncertainties of the future, will choose one of the following three processes will undertake
Marginalization and creating controversy inside
The 11th government, which initially came to the field with the slogan of moderation, found a significant slope towards reforms in less than three years. Rouhani’s slide towards reforms is somewhat compatible with the government’s needs. For example, Rouhani knows very well that making demands such as lifting the detention of 88 criminals at times when there is high public expectation for the improvement of the economic situation is completely a solution.
With this trick, the government took some extraordinary measures, the implementation of each of which would certainly pose a serious challenge to Ahmadinejad’s government. Within a short period of time, the president removed a large number of people from the list of subsidy recipients and blamed it on the fundamentalist parliament. Setting a single price for gasoline and raising the price of a significant part of people’s consumption items with this same tactic was the least expensive for the government.
More tolerance towards the West with diplomacy
Probably Rouhani’s statements a while ago about JCPOA 2 and 3, while the people have not yet received any special results from JCPOA 1; A type of government needs assessment is based on closed door negotiations with American officials. The statements of the Washington officials after the JCPOA, the imposition of new sanctions under the pretext of the missile program, the statements of the candidates for the US presidential elections convey the impression that the White House looks at the JCPOA as a bridge to achieve future goals and definitely a pledge to change Iran’s behavior based on the regional needs of the US. It will not end here.
The Rouhani government knows very well that neither the text of the JCPOA has the necessary deterrence to impose new sanctions against Iran, nor does the western side consider the Iran case closed with the end of the nuclear controversy, therefore, some non-nuclear demands of the United States must be met in a way that causes the sensitivity of domestic critics. do not
The word diplomacy, which has been the solution to clerical problems since the beginning of the 11th government, is supposed to give more strain against the Americans to domestic and foreign public opinion in a stylish and parliamentary manner.
Projecting and passing problems to others
The 11th government managed the current problems of the country through constant and non-stop criticism of the previous government. During this period, Rouhani was trying to make people understand that the amount of vandalism caused by the previous government’s actions is so extensive that they should not expect a dramatic change in their economic situation in the near future. Rouhani, who in his election campaign had promised to change the country’s economic conditions within a hundred days, should have found a way to prevent this promise from being fulfilled.
Exaggerating the dire economic conditions of the country was the best way to convince the audience that this promise was not fulfilled. From time to time in his speeches, Rouhani threw the ball into the court of the 9th and 10th government and for a long time he involved the public opinion and the media with the margins of his statements.
Certainly, after three years of the 11th government’s life, this procedure will not be acceptable to the people, so the government may assume a more critical face after the post-war promises of the West are not fulfilled, and in formats such as defending women’s rights, citizenship rights, or freedom of the press, public demands. divert
A part of the Omid List’s vote in the 10th Majlis comes from the point of view that the people think that the government needs an aligned and complementary parliament to fulfill its promises, but if the West is unfaithful, a complementary parliament will definitely not be able to help to fulfill Rouhani’s promises, so there is a clear perspective. It is not waiting for the president.
By using any of the above temporary scenarios, the government will not have much room to escape from continuous JCPOA violations in the future. No matter how much Rouhani resorts to the above tactics, the improvement of the economic conditions of the country is related to the livelihood of the people, and the quality of the livelihood cannot be justified by the political trend.
It does not seem that even in the case of a complete violation of the JCPOA, Rouhani like Chamberlain will resign due to his excessive optimism towards the Westerners, but with the continuation of the existing process, it is possible that the people for the first time after the victory of the revolution; Debar Rouhani from resuming the presidency; It is not enough.
