The swamp of attacking Iran for the Zionist regime

The repeated warnings of “Meir Dagan”, the former head of the Israeli intelligence agency (Mossad), to the heads of Israel regarding the avoidance of military action against Iran’s nuclear program, which has been repeated more than 4 times in the last three weeks, have received the attention of regional issues experts.

During the last three weeks, he has warned four times about the disastrous results of any military attack against Iran, while Dagan is the one who encouraged Israel’s three previous cabinets to take positions against Iran’s nuclear program. It is interesting here that Most of Israel’s security commanders who have left their jobs have adopted the same position and warned against attacking Iran and considered it a strategic mistake for Israel that Tel Aviv will not be able to deal with its consequences. 

International affairs analyst “Saleh al-Naami” in an article he published on Al-Jazeera news website and his website, pointed to this issue and wrote that contrary to the common approach, it can be concluded that Dagan’s repeated warnings show that Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister, and Ehud Barak Israel’s Minister of War is trying to convince Israel’s top security commanders to carry out a pre-emptive strike against Iran’s nuclear program.

* Repeated warnings from Israeli security authorities

On the other hand, Gabi Ashkenazi, the former chief of staff of the army, Yuval Diskin, the former head of Shabak, and Amos Yadlin, the former head of Amman, who in the not-so-distant past were at the head of Israel’s military and intelligence agencies, confirm Dagan’s positions. and they are trying to prevent Israel from going to war with Iran.
It is said that Ashkenazi’s position in rejecting the attack on Iran made Shimon Peres, the head of this regime, consider him the greatest commander in the history of Israel, but on the other hand, Netanyahu and Barak refused to extend his command over the Israeli army headquarters.

* Dispersion of Iran’s nuclear facilities

According to this report, Israel’s former commanders believe that due to the spread of Iran’s nuclear facilities in a very wide area, the possibility of destroying them is very limited for Israel, because the Iranians have built their nuclear facilities in a very scattered manner, and that is why the attack This establishment requires Israel to have a very high power, which is more than the current capabilities of this regime.

*Construction of Iranian facilities underground

On the other hand, Iran has established its nuclear facilities deep in the earth, so the possibility of destroying these facilities requires high military, technological and logistical power, which according to Dagan, Israel does not have.
Tel Aviv believes that the Iranians very soon used the experience of the Iraqi nuclear program, a program that Israel completely destroyed in 1981, because the Iraqis had put all the stages of this program in a nuclear power plant.

* The nightmare of a long-term war for Israel

Israeli commanders believe that in exchange for a very weak probability of success for this Israeli attack, there is a great risk in the field of Iran’s large-scale retaliation against Israel. According to these people, Iran can drop tens of thousands of missiles on Israel in the course of several months. It will cause complete paralysis of Israel.

* Hezbollah will be the spearhead of Iran’s attack

This is while the Israeli security officials are sure that in this attack, Hezbollah of Lebanon will be the spearhead of Iran’s attack and Israel should prepare for a long-term regional war, this is despite the fact that Israel does not have the possibility and the only option before Israel. To stop this war, it is necessary to use unconventional weapons, and this option also needs international approval for Israel, which is not possible for this regime.

Israel’s internal front is not ready for war with Iran

Al-Noami adds in this report that this scenario becomes worrying for the leaders of Israel when they know that all the achievements that Israel’s internal front has made are not ready to face this war. It revives, with the difference that the damages of that fire are more like a joke compared to the damages of a possible war between Iran and Israel.

* Attacking Iran and stopping economic pressures and sanctions

Another danger that Israel’s attack on Iran has for Tel Aviv is the cessation of international pressure on Iran to stop its nuclear activities. This attack can also lead to the set of economic sanctions against this country that the United States has approved by putting pressure on other powers. , make it ineffective.

* The attack on Iran encourages Tehran to build an atomic bomb

This writer adds that such an attack can prevent Iran from its commitments in the field of not producing nuclear weapons, and Iran can quickly and publicly change the nature of its nuclear program from civilian to military without fear of its consequences. This possible attack will open the way for Iran to carry out nuclear tests as announced on a large scale.

* Creating an arms race in the region

On the other hand, Tel Aviv’s security chiefs fear that Iran’s success in producing nuclear weapons may lead Arab countries to produce these weapons as well, which will create a nuclear arms race in the region. This is what Israel calls it. He knows danger against himself and warns about it.

* Iran’s atomic bomb production to attack Israel is exaggerated

Israel’s security chiefs also admit that the statement that Iran has produced nuclear weapons to be used against Israel seems highly exaggerated, because according to the available information, Iran wants to strengthen its position in the Persian Gulf region by developing its nuclear program. .

* America will not cooperate with Israel in a possible attack

On the other hand, any possible Israeli attack on Iran must be done without the consent and presence of the Americans, because they have repeatedly expressed their opposition to any unilateral action by Israel in this regard, this is because the American government knows that Iran has many cards. Especially in Iraq and Afghanistan, it has at its disposal, which it can use to annoy America.

* Creating unity in Iran’s internal front

There is no doubt that Israel’s attack on Iran, regardless of its success or failure, can destroy the West’s plans to create discord among the country’s officials and Tehran’s government, and bring unity among the regime’s officials. In the opinion of this writer, this attack destroys the opportunity to improve the situation of the pro-Western reformist movement and disappoints Israel’s hopes of transferring the Arab Spring to Iran.
According to Noami’s opinion, it is clear that Dagan and those like him who suggest not attacking Iran do not want Iran’s nuclear progress, but they want Iran’s nuclear program to be countered in such a way that there is no trace of Israel in indirect attacks and Iran cannot attack Israel under this pretext.
He writes about the timing of these repeated warnings that Dagan knows that Israel’s security officials, who have only been in office for a few months, do not have the strength to resist the pressure of Netanyahu and Barak to attack Iran, that is why he is trying to influence public opinion. enter into this equation to avoid this program.

* Netanyahu is the main supporter of the attack on Iran

What worries Dagan and his friends is that Netanyahu still believes that Iran’s nuclear program is an existential threat to Israel and that destroying this program will be his main mission in his second term as prime minister.
On the other hand, on the eve of the Palestinians’ plan for the recognition of the independent Palestinian state in the United Nations, Netanyahu is trying to upset the cards of this equation with a possible attack on Iran and destroy the Palestinian movements before they start.
In the end, this article emphasizes that despite the warnings of people like Dagan, Netanyahu’s chance to carry out any attack on Iran is very low, it is true that the political leaders can decide to attack at any time regardless of the position of the military commanders, but they know that In case of failure, only these political leaders will have to take responsibility for it.
For this reason, the direct result of Dagan’s statements in recent weeks is the destruction of Israel’s deterrence element in confronting Iran, so that Iran has reached the equation that an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities seems far-fetched.

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